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Global Sea Ice Extent

September 17th Data:

Arctic Sea Ice: 1.2 Million km

Antarctic Sea Ice: 1.5 million km

Net Global Sea Ice Deviation: 0.3 million km

El Ni

I remember Robert Felix talking about El Ni?o and its part in ice ages. This is supposed to be an event that happens about every 7 years or so. But it seems as of late it never really goes away.

If you check out this link...

http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino/index.html

You'll see that the El Ni?o is a pretty common event since 2002. You'll get a brief La Ni?a but it always gets quickly replace by at least a mild El Ni?o. Are we finally getting the fuel source in place that we need to fuel an ice age?

Remember your water has to stay warm. If the water cools too fast it freezes over and the moisture needed to provide the snow goes away. In a relatively short time you have to build up an ice sheet that is 1,000 feet thick. That is 10,000 feet of snow. You can't do that if the oceans are iced up too much of the year. The warmer the water the more energy it can provide. Look at how the lake effect snow system works. You get the worst snows when the water is still relatively warm. As the water gets colder the strength of the snow squalls die down. And of course once the lakes freeze the lake effect season ends.

Watch the El Ni?o and see what happens. See if it ever really goes away now.

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5 comments to El Ni

  • Well looks like the prediction is that EL Nino may be ending after Feb. 2007

    It would appear it is winding down….

    http://cache.climatepatrol.com/2899.gif
    Original Image: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

    Global Scale

    http://cache.climatepatrol.com/2900.gif
    Original Image: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

    Weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (top, ?C) and anomalies (bottom, ?C) for the past twelve weeks. SST analysis is the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis, while anomalies are departures from the adjusted OI climatology (Reynolds and Smith 1995, J. Climate, 8, 1571-1583).

    The last frame of the subsurface temps has it almost dissapated. The surface temps are still there but seems to be rapidly going down as well.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov…g/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml

  • Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate that SST anomalies are near their peak and that decreasing anomalies are likely during February-May 2007 (Fig. 5). Recent observed trends in the upper ocean tend to support those forecasts. Decreasing upper-ocean heat content in the central equatorial Pacific has been progressing east in association with the upwelling portion of the most recent Kelvin wave. In the absence of any further Kelvin wave activity, the upper-ocean heat content should return to near average in a few months.

    However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook, given the resurgence of MJO activity in late December 2006.

    It is possible that the enhanced precipitation phase of the MJO, which is currently entering the western tropical Pacific, might trigger a more persistent pattern of cloudiness and precipitation over the anomalously warm waters of the central equatorial Pacific during the next several weeks. If that occurs, then the equatorial easterlies over the central Pacific will likely weaken possibly leading to the initiation of a fifth Kelvin wave. Please refer to ENSO Evolution, Status and Prediction Presentation available on the CPC El Ni?o/ La Ni?a page for weekly updates on the latest conditions in the tropical Pacific (see link below).

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov…/analysis_monitoring/lanina/

    There is an increased probability of observing El Ni?o-related effects over North America during January-March 2007, including warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the northern United States, wetter-than-average conditions over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and drier-than-average conditions in the Ohio Valley and in portions of the Pacific Northwest. Global effects that can be expected during January-March include drier-than-average conditions over portions of Malaysia, Indonesia, northern and eastern Australia, some of the U.S.-affiliated islands in the tropical North Pacific, northern South America and southeastern Africa, and wetter-than-average conditions over central South America (Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, southeastern Paraguay and southern Brazil) and possibly along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov…is_monitoring/enso_advisory/

  • Guess we will have to keep an eye on these SSt observations to see what happens in the pacific over the next few months.

  • Can you do me a favor and attach those images to your posts instead of hotlinking. At least when it comes to .gov sites. That way 6 months from now your posts make sense. Otherwise your posts will reference images that no longer support your post since they will change.

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