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Global Sea Ice Extent

September 17th Data:

Arctic Sea Ice: 1.2 Million km

Antarctic Sea Ice: 1.5 million km

Net Global Sea Ice Deviation: 0.3 million km

Category 5 Hurricane Wilma

Quote From Source:


With the forming of the 20th tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin, this season becomes the second busiest on record. If one more storm forms, as is likely, 2005 will tie for the record and the last name on the list will be used.

Tropical storm Vince became a hurricane Sunday in the far eastern Atlantic. The only name left on this year's list is Wilma, then the National Hurricane Center will switch for the first time to Greek names such Alpha, Beta, and Gamma.

The busiest season on record was 1933 with 21 named storm. There were 20 storms in 1887 and 1995. Reliable hurricane records go back to 1851.



Source URL: http://www.livescience.com/f.../051010_hurricane_names.html

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66 comments to Category 5 Hurricane Wilma

  • Varying Wilma Models Confound Forecasters

    Quote From Source:

    In the time Max Mayfield has been at the National Hurricane Center, the forecasting of killer storms has gone from flying kites to satellites and computer models to help pinpoint the ferocity and landfall of storms. But Wilma has confounded the experts.

    Using those models, forecasters predicted Wilma would meander a few days in the Gulf of Mexico and then race across southwest Florida or the Keys. Its slow speed has somewhat confounded them. While forecasters believe Wilma will be picked up by the jet stream and zoom across Florida, it hasn’t happened as quickly as the models have predicted.

    Mayfield said one of the models used for Wilma has been a “windshield wiper,” widely varying each time it was been used. In some computer runs, it showed Wilma off the coast of Maine after five days. In others, the same model showed the storm off the coast of Cuba.

    Source: Washington Post
    Source URL: http://www.washingtonpost.co…5/10/20/AR2005102002045.html

  • Its because they have no skill in forecasting and count too much on models which they programmed to begin with.

  • Quote From Source:

    For a few hours it was the strongest on record, it’s bamboozled the weather forecasters, and now Hurricane Wilma is venting its force on Mexico.

    But meteorologists still don’t know exactly where it’s going, when, and how strong it’ll be when she gets there.

    Computer models plot the predicted path hurricanes will take and are often pretty accurate, but Wilma has had the scientists scratching their heads.

    Source: BBC
    Source URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4365898.stm

  • Dropped to a C3….

    Official Advisory/Bulletin:

    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    10 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

    …CENTER WILMA STILL INLAND OVER YUCATAN AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD…
    …HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS…

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH… 185 KM/HR… WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM… FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB…27.94 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS… ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES… WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

    WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA… WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 50 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES… WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

  • C3 now, but its over land, the gulf waters are still hurricane steroids.

  • Official Advisory/Bulletin:

    WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR…AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM… FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056…LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 185 MILES… 295 KM… SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF WILMA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 47 MPH… 76 KM/HR.

    AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB…28.38 INCHES.

    here we go
    084609w_sm_208.gif

  • uhmm, are Alpha and Wilma heading for a meeting ?
    084648w_sm_144.gif

  • Quote From Source:

    The atmosphere as of Sunday morning holds potential for the
    development of a powerful storm off the Atlantic Seaboard of the United States early next week. While this would be true to some extent without the existence of Hurricane Wilma and the newly-dubbed Tropical Storm Alpha, which represent a great reservoir of tropical warmth and moisture, it only ratchets up the potential.

    Source: Accuweather
    Source URL: http://headlines.accuweather…amp;traveler=0&article=6
    iws6_430_264.jpg

  • Is this a first? What happens when two hurricanes join? A whole new storm? Do they rename it? Wilma Alpha? Sounds like a frat house or a really bad joke.

  • Here is the latest IR and Dvorak image of a storm getting rapidly better organized.
    102405-0015utc-ir_232.jpg
    102405-0015utc-ir_232.jpg
    102305-2345utc_183.jpg

  • Interesting radial velocity image from Key West. Maximum winds towards the radar site of 142kts. Thats about 146mph surface. A gust Im sure.
    byx-0222z_146.gif

  • Following doppler update showed max wind of 140kts. Not sure if I’d qualify it as a sustained wind. Could be different gusts that just happened to be about the same strength. It could also be radar picking up the winds in a tornado.

  • The radial velocity image from Tampa picked up a maximum wind of 185kts. That would translate to nearly 190mph surface. Thats gotta be a tornado. I hope.
    tbw-0230z_121.gif

  • Here is another image from the Keys. 161kts in this image. Thats a wind gust of nearly 165mph. Could be gust, sustained or tornado.
    byx-0238z_277.gif

  • Here is the 5am advisory from the NHC. Wilma has increased to 125mph as it approaches the coast. I can see it hitting 130 at landfall which is a borderline category 3/category 4 storm. Most people were expecting a storm weakening to a 1 or very low 2 not one on the verge of a category 4. I suspect many people will be wishing they didn’t stay.

    Official Advisory/Bulletin:

    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 240851
    TCPAT4
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 36
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    5 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

    …WILMA STRONGER AND APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA…

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS… INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY…ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD… AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD… INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER…AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA…LA HABANA…AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. THESE WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…INCLUDING THE ABACOS…ANDROS ISLAND…BERRY ISLANDS… BIMINI…ELEUTHERA…GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND…AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 5 AM EDT…0900Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

    WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST IN A FEW HOURS AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

    DATA RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB…28.05 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 9 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY… AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

    WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES…ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA…INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. WESTERN CUBA MAY SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

    LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TODAY.

    TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

    REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION…25.5 N… 82.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE… 950 MB.

    INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

    FORECASTER PASCH

    $$

  • This is really an incredibe radial velocity image of Wilma as it is about to make landfall in Florida. This image shows clearly the core of severe winds just about to approach the coastline. Things will get really bad in Florida in the next 30 minutes to 1 hour.
    byx-0918z_725.gif

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