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Global Sea Ice Extent

September 17th Data:

Arctic Sea Ice: 1.2 Million km

Antarctic Sea Ice: 1.5 million km

Net Global Sea Ice Deviation: 0.3 million km

Dennis – 'the menace' ?

watch this one...
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25 comments to Dennis – 'the menace' ?

  • I tell ya – watch this sob !!
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  • might become ‘major’…
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  • Quote From Source:

    MIAMI (AP) – With fresh memories of last year’s barrage of deadly hurricanes, Floridians kept a watchful eye on Tropical Storm Dennis on Wednesday as it moved through the Caribbean on a path that could bring the storm to U.S. shores by the weekend.

    Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami cannot say with any certainty where or if Dennis may hit because the storm is still more than 870 miles southeast of Miami. But they cautioned people to be ready for Dennis, which could be a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 111 mph to 130 mph by the time it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

    “Pretty much everyone from the (Florida) Keys all the way to Texas” should be monitoring Dennis’ progress, said Chris Hennon, a meteorologist at the center.

    Source: Associated Press
    Source URL: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050706/D8B638U00.html

  • Hurricane Dennis Steams Toward Jamaica

    By LEONARDO ALDRIDGE
    The Associated Press
    Thursday, July 7, 2005; 12:02 PM

    Quote From Source:

    LES CAYES, Haiti — Hurricane Dennis dumped heavy rain on Haiti and its winds strengthened to 105 mph Thursday as it spun toward Jamaica. Hurricane warnings were posted in the Florida Keys and Cuba, including at the U.S. Navy base at Guantanamo Bay, and forecasters said the storm could hit anywhere from Florida to Louisiana.

    Thunderstorms covered the Dominican Republic. Rivers burst their banks in dangerously deforested southern Haiti, where gusts uprooted a palm tree and flung it into a mud hut, injuring two people who were hospitalized in southern Les Cayes town.

    Dennis grew to a Category 2 hurricane Thursday morning, becoming the third storm to threaten petroleum output in the Gulf of Mexico. Private forecaster AccuWeather put the storm right into U.S. oil and gas producing facilities.

    Source: Washington Post
    Source URL: http://www.washingtonpost.co…7/07/AR2005070700235_pf.html

  • Sat Images and 3-5 day projections
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  • DENNIS IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 135 MPH AND IS HEADING FOR CUBA

    As of 11:00 PM EDT, Hurricane Dennis was centered at 19.9 north, 77.6 west, or about 105 south of Camaguey, Cuba. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 135 mph, with higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches). This makes Dennis a powerful Category 4 hurricane. Dennis is moving toward the northwest at 15 mph. Dennis should remain on this course over the next 24-48 hours….

    I *knew* this damn thing was gonna go bad!
    damn – checked this a.m. winds up to 150!!

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  • Dennis Touches Cuba, Hits Guantanamo Base

    By ANITA SNOW
    The Associated Press
    Friday, July 8, 2005; 5:05 PM

    Quote From Source:

    HAVANA — Hurricane Dennis stalked Cuba’s southern coast before cutting across the Caribbean’s largest island, packing 145 mph winds capable of catastrophic damage that sent thousands fleeing the Florida Keys and raised fears of more disruption to U.S. oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Winds and heaving surf tossed a guard tower into the sea and roared over a razor-wire fence at the U.S. detention camp for terror suspects at Guantanamo Bay, on the island’s eastern end.

    Forecasters predicted the storm will intensify and hit the United States anywhere from Florida to Louisiana by Sunday or Monday, the fourth storm in as many weeks to disrupt oil production.

    Source: Washington Post
    Source URL: http://www.washingtonpost.co…7/08/AR2005070800151_pf.html

  • Quote From Source:

    Dennis has come ashore on the south coast of Cuba, and it took one of the worst possible landfall trajectories–a 70-mile long track scraping the coast with its right eyewall. The right eyewall contains the hurricane’s strongest winds and highest storm surge, and normally only a 5 to 10 mile section of coast suffers it. Cuba just had 70 miles of coast with some of its prime tourist areas suffer a storm surge of at least 13 feet, and probably 20 feet or higher in many places. Add to this the hurricane’s sustained winds of 145 – 150 mph, and the result will be a multi-billion dollar destruction of a key part of the island’s economy.

    Dennis is now the most intense June or July hurricane on record, beating out Hurricane Audrey of June 1957, which was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds and a central pressure of 946 mb at its peak.

    Source: Weather Underground
    Source URL: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

  • the good news – the forcast max wind speeds have dropped.
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  • Hurricane Prompts Massive Evacuations

    By CORALIE CARLSON
    The Associated Press
    Saturday, July 9, 2005; 2:28 PM

    Quote From Source:

    KEY WEST, Fla. — Coastal residents packed up and evacuated or hunkered down Saturday as Hurricane Dennis lashed the Florida Keys with wind and sheets of rain and charged toward areas still rebuilding from last year’s storms.

    More than 1 million people from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana were under evacuation orders. Landfall was expected Sunday afternoon anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana.

    “This is a very dangerous storm and we hope that you will evacuate,” Gov. Jeb Bush said to residents in the Panhandle.

    The storm, the earliest to reach Category 4 strength in the Caribbean on record, was expected to bring up to 8 inches of rain and 6-foot storm surges Saturday. It was blamed for at least 10 deaths in Cuba and 10 in Haiti.

    Source: Washington Post
    Source URL: http://www.washingtonpost.co…7/09/AR2005070900202_pf.html

  • still a ‘cane that far inland ??
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  • I think the above predictions might be off, I’ve been concerned with
    this thing since I saw it a week ago.
    look for big D to go cat 4 again.

    😕

  • its getting really organised now…here is the latest loop..look into its eye…

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

    I hope this thing hits late in the evening at low tide…… 😕
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  • I think the above predictions might be off, I’ve been concerned with this thing since I saw it a week ago. look for big D to go cat 4 again.
    😕

    I agree, especially after I saw how warm the water was in the gulf. Up to 86degrees F in some areas. Thats hurricane steroids there. Cat 4 is not out of the question. Look at the latest radar loop and look how define the eye is. If it wasnt going to make landfall tomorrow, I’d give it a class 5 but there is not enough time to wind all the way back up…thank god.. I sure hope it hooks to the north, New Orleans is gonna get swamped if it continues on this northwest course. God I hope I am way off and wrong about this. I’m just remembering Crazy Ivan from last year. Did the unexpected. Just cuz its a cane doesnt mean it has to hook to the north.
    No charts have it going into the Louisana/Mississippi river basin. I dont suppose it could feed off fresh water for a while off the river to keep its hurricane strength up further inland then anticipated ❓ ❓ Thats the only thing I can think of that would give it just a little more ummph to make it a hurricane that far inland. Almost all of the charts have Dennis as a Hurricane in the middle of Mississippi/Alabama….Dunno..maybe a cat 4 can make it that far inland. 74 mph still qualifies as a Cat 1 Hurricane, so if it hits land doing 140+as a Cat 4…. I could see it still being a Cat 1 74-95 mph that far inland.

    Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale

    http://www.loep.state.la.us/…ated/HURRICANECATEGORIES.htm

  • Hurricane Dennis Roars Toward Gulf Coast

    Storm Reaches Category 4 Status

    By BILL KACZOR
    The Associated Press
    Sunday, July 10, 2005; 1:29 AM

    Quote From Source:

    PENSACOLA, Fla. — Hurricane Dennis dealt a glancing blow to the Florida Keys on Saturday, knocking out power and leaving streets flooded with seaweed as it roared toward the storm-weary Gulf Coast, where nearly 1.4 million people were under evacuation orders.

    The hurricane, blamed for at least 20 deaths in Haiti and Cuba, carried a threat of more than a half-foot of rain plus waves and storm surge that could be more than a story high when it makes landfall Sunday somewhere along the coast of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama or Mississippi.

    A hurricane warning was in effect from the Steinhatchee River, about 130 miles north of Tampa, to the Louisiana-Mississippi border.

    Many Gulf residents were still patching up roofs on their homes or living in government trailers because of damage caused by Hurricane Ivan just 10 months ago. For them, Dennis meant another tense weekend of long lines for gas and searching for generators and plywood.

    Source: Washington Post
    Source URL: http://www.washingtonpost.co…7/09/AR2005070900222_pf.html

  • Official Advisory/Bulletin:

    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 100913
    TCDAT4
    HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    5 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

    DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN DENNIS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 KT. THIS IS BASED ON MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 139 AND 140 KT FROM A COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. DENNIS MAY UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL… WHICH USUALLY RESULTS IN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY ENVIRONMENTAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES THAT COULD WEAKEN THE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL… HOWEVER THE WATERS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL AREAS ARE OF SOMEWHAT LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT… WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE. THE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWETWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS EAST AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.

    PREDICTED STORM SURGE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE INCREASED INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.

    FORECASTER PASCH

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 10/0900Z 27.8N 86.1W 125 KT
    12HR VT 10/1800Z 29.6N 87.4W 125 KT
    24HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 89.0W 65 KT…INLAND
    36HR VT 11/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W 35 KT…INLAND
    48HR VT 12/0600Z 36.5N 90.0W 30 KT…INLAND
    72HR VT 13/0600Z 38.0N 88.5W 25 KT…INLAND
    96HR VT 14/0600Z 38.5N 86.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
    120HR VT 15/0600Z 38.5N 84.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

    $$

  • Lots of water with Dennis….
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  • 140 mph winds… damn… and it will still be a ‘tropical storm’
    almost to Tennessee !!

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  • If Dennis hits Mobile Bay, what are the chances it gets sloshed over into Mobile?

  • sure enuff, big D is inland and still a CAT 2 …

    http://www.floridadisaster.org/
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  • Insurer losses from Dennis could reach $5 billion

    Quote From Source:

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Hurricane Dennis could trigger losses of up to $5 billion for insurers, according to risk modeling companies.

    Dennis weakened to a tropical depression Monday after hurtling into northwest Florida with 120 mph winds Sunday, and killing 32 people in the Caribbean last week.

    The storm hit an area similar to last year’s Hurricane Ivan, but Dennis was more compact and moved faster, which reduced damage from the 2005 hurricane. Hurricanes destroy more buildings when they move slowly and batter structures over time.

    Source: CNN
    Source URL: http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/…161500&w=RTR&coview=

  • Quote From Source:

    July 11, 2005 – Just as residents and vacationers along the U.S. Gulf Coast are breathing a sigh of relief, the forecast now is for the potential of heavy rain and flooding to spread inland into the Tennessee Valley, middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley on Monday through Wednesday. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Tropical Depression Dennis taken at 9:15 a.m. EDT on July 11, 2005, as it makes its way inland in the United States after coming ashore in Florida on Sunday. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit NOAA)…

    Source: NOAA News
    Source URL: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2472.htm
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